The United States, Canada, and Mexico formally began the renewal process for the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on Wednesday, setting off what analysts expect to be months of contentious negotiations that could reshape trade rules across North America. For Florida businesses that rely on cross-border commerce, the stakes are considerable.

The USMCA, which replaced NAFTA in 2020, included a novel provision requiring the pact to be renewed every six years. Wednesday marked that deadline. The three countries met virtually, but U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement that the United States was not ready to renew the pact as-is for another 16 years, according to Associated Press coverage via Local 10.

The U.S. wants changes to reduce its trade deficits with Canada and Mexico and to resolve disputes including Canada’s protection of its dairy industry. The most contentious issue is a U.S. push to require that 50% of cars be made in the United States, a demand that Canada and Mexico call a red line. Currently, none of the USMCA countries gets a guaranteed share of production.

“There’s going to be a lot of drama this summer,” said Diego Marroquín Bitar, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, speaking at a USMCA forum sponsored by the Cato Institute. The USMCA remains in effect while negotiations continue, with the current term running until 2036.

Florida’s agricultural sector, particularly its winter vegetable growers who compete with Mexican imports, have been closely watching the trade talks. The state’s tourism industry also depends heavily on Canadian visitors, and any trade tensions could impact cross-border travel patterns. Businesses across the state are hoping for stability after a year of chaotic tariff policies.

Trump threatened in June to pull out of the agreement entirely, saying, “We don’t need anything that they have.” Any USMCA country can withdraw provided it gives its partners six months’ notice. Canada and Mexico, both heavily dependent on trade with the United States, fear Trump may follow through, as the AP reported.

Business groups are urging patience. “My interest in this USMCA renewal is just consistency,” said Shawn Miller, co-founder of PKGD Group, which imports agave spirits from Mexico. “If the rules change, the rules change. But we’d really like to know what they’re going to be and we’d like them to stay that way for a while.”